Peterson Institute for International Economics

Shipping containers are seen at the port of Oakland, as trade tensions continued over U.S. tariffs with China, in Oakland, California, U.S., May 12, 2025.

Photo Credit: REUTERS/Carlos Barria

The Trump-China trade wars: Five takeaways from US imports in 2025

Chad P. Bown (PIIE)

Real US imports of goods from China dropped 28 percent in 2025 during President Donald Trump’s second trade war, continuing a slide that began in 2018 with his first trade war. The US imported 9 percent more from other countries last year, despite Trump’s tariffs on them.

European Union flags are seen in front of the European Commission building in Brussels, Belgium.

NurPhoto/Jakub Porzycki

Photo Credit: NurPhoto/Jakub Porzycki

RealTime Economics

Can the EU lead a new world order in trade?

Cecilia Malmström (PIIE)

March 17, 2026

A petrochemical refinery company in Qingdao City, Shandong Province, China. Photo taken on July 25, 2025.

NurPhoto/Costfoto

Photo Credit: NurPhoto/Costfoto

Working Papers

Who controls the global petrochemical industry, and how might that change?

Abdullah AlHassan (International Monetary Fund), Luc Leruth (University of Clermont Ferrand), Adnan Mazarei (PIIE), Charles Meuwly (ZENO-Indices), Joseph Moussa (International Monetary Fund) and Pierre Régibeau (Warsaw School of Economics)

March 20, 2026

A US flag and H-1B Visa application form are seen in this photo illustration, taken on September 22, 2025.

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

Photo Credit: REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

RealTime Economics

The economic case for a $100,000 tax on H-1B visas rests on several errors

Michael A. Clemens (PIIE)

March 16, 2026

Metro trains move past commuters near the Sabarmati Metro station in Ahmedabad, India. Picture taken on January 31, 2026.

REUTERS/Amit Dave

Photo Credit: REUTERS/Amit Dave

Working Papers

India's 20 years of GDP misestimation: New evidence

Abhishek Anand (Madras Institute of Development Studies), Josh Felman (JH Consulting) and Arvind Subramanian (PIIE)

March 10, 2026

What's New

Featured episode: Policy for the Planet

How the war on Iran exposes global economic interconnectedness (Episode 29)

Monica de Bolle (PIIE) and Adnan Mazarei (PIIE)

March 24, 2026

Flags of the US and China are displayed on a printed circuit board with semiconductor chips, in this illustration.

Negotiating a win-win end to the lose-lose US-China trade war over technology and critical minerals

Chad P. Bown (PIIE)

March 2026

Highwayman Trump disarmed but not defeated

Marcus Noland (PIIE)

March 23, 2026

via East Asia Forum

A petrochemical refinery company in Qingdao City, Shandong Province, China. Photo taken on July 25, 2025.

Who controls the global petrochemical industry, and how might that change?

Abdullah AlHassan (International Monetary Fund), Luc Leruth (University of Clermont Ferrand), Adnan Mazarei (PIIE), Charles Meuwly (ZENO-Indices), Joseph Moussa (International Monetary Fund) and Pierre Régibeau (Warsaw School of Economics)

March 2026

PIIE Charts

Trump's tariff revenue tracker: How much is the US collecting? Which imports are hit?

Trump's tariff revenue tracker: How much is the US collecting? Which imports are hit?

Gary Clyde Hufbauer (PIIE) and Ye Zhang (PIIE)

March 24, 2026

The Trump administration wants foreign investment pledges to boost several sectors that Biden targeted (featured)

The Trump administration wants foreign investment pledges to boost several sectors that Biden targeted

Gregory Auclair (PIIE) and Adnan Mazarei (PIIE)

February 11, 2026

Some countries will struggle to fulfill their investment pledges to President Trump

Some countries will struggle to fulfill their investment pledges to President Trump

Gregory Auclair (PIIE) and Adnan Mazarei (PIIE)

January 29, 2026

China’s private-sector rebound continued in 2025, fueled by “new economy” (featured)

China’s private-sector rebound continued in 2025, fueled by “new economy”

Tianlei Huang (PIIE) and Nicolas Véron (PIIE)

January 20, 2026

How critical are critical minerals in the Brazil-US economic relationship?

March 25, 2026, 11:00 AM to 12:00 PM EDT

Monica de Bolle (PIIE), Cullen S. Hendrix (PIIE), Pedro Guerra (Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services, Brazil) and Bruna Santos (Inter-American Dialogue)

Mar

25

US-China trade update: Imports, exports, fentanyl flows, and beyond

March 26, 2026, 9:00 AM to 10:15 AM EDT

Chad P. Bown (PIIE), Martin Chorzempa (PIIE), Mary E. Lovely (PIIE) and Marcus Noland (PIIE)

Event to be rescheduled

Mar

26

Industrial policy for development

April 1, 2026, 9:00 AM to 10:00 AM EDT

Chad P. Bown (PIIE), Ana Margarida Fernandes (World Bank), Mary E. Lovely (PIIE) and Tristan Reed (World Bank)

Apr

01

Featured Topics

US Federal Reserve

Patrons exit a supermarket in Florida where consumer prices have soared due to inflation.

The COVID era inflation surge: Causes, consequences, and policy lessons

Karen Dynan (PIIE) and David Wilcox (PIIE)

January 2026

US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the Federal Reserve in Washington, DC.

Trump’s Attack on the Fed Is Already Backfiring

Jason Furman (PIIE)

January 12, 2026

via New York Times

US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell holds a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), at the US Federal Reserve in Washington, DC. Picture taken on December 10, 2025.

Donald Trump May Be About to Pick the Least Important Fed Chair in Decades

Jason Furman (PIIE)

December 16, 2025

via New York Times

Tariffs

Highwayman Trump disarmed but not defeated

Marcus Noland (PIIE)

March 23, 2026

via East Asia Forum

US flags flutter in front of shipping containers at the Port of Long Beach in Long Beach, California. Photo taken on July 11, 2025.

Will Trump’s latest gambit to impose his tariffs be upheld by the courts?

Alan Wm. Wolff (PIIE)

March 17, 2026

Shipping containers are seen at the port of Oakland, as trade tensions continued over U.S. tariffs with China, in Oakland, California, U.S., May 12, 2025.

The Trump-China trade wars: Five takeaways from US imports in 2025

Chad P. Bown (PIIE)

March 16, 2026

Inflation

A customer shops at a supermarket in New York as consumer prices surged as inflation hits 40-year high.

The worst inflation outbreak in 40 years: Distilling lessons from the COVID era

Karen Dynan (PIIE) and David Wilcox (PIIE), editors

February 2026

Patrons exit a supermarket in Florida where consumer prices have soared due to inflation.

The COVID era inflation surge: Causes, consequences, and policy lessons

Karen Dynan (PIIE) and David Wilcox (PIIE)

January 2026

People shop at a supermarket in New York ahead of New Year's Eve. Picture taken December 30, 2025.

The risk of higher US inflation in 2026

Peter Orszag (Lazard) and Adam S. Posen (PIIE)

January 20, 2026

China

Flags of the US and China are displayed on a printed circuit board with semiconductor chips, in this illustration.

Negotiating a win-win end to the lose-lose US-China trade war over technology and critical minerals

Chad P. Bown (PIIE)

March 2026

A petrochemical refinery company in Qingdao City, Shandong Province, China. Photo taken on July 25, 2025.

Who controls the global petrochemical industry, and how might that change?

Abdullah AlHassan (International Monetary Fund), Luc Leruth (University of Clermont Ferrand), Adnan Mazarei (PIIE), Charles Meuwly (ZENO-Indices), Joseph Moussa (International Monetary Fund) and Pierre Régibeau (Warsaw School of Economics)

March 2026

Shipping containers are seen at the port of Oakland, as trade tensions continued over U.S. tariffs with China, in Oakland, California, U.S., May 12, 2025.

The Trump-China trade wars: Five takeaways from US imports in 2025

Chad P. Bown (PIIE)

March 16, 2026

In The News

Martin Chorzempa

Trump-Xi Agenda to Be Shaped as Negotiators Meet in Paris

via Bloomberg

feat. Martin Chorzempa

Elina Ribakova

As Iran War Pushes Up Oil Prices, Putin Can Barely Conceal a Smirk

via Wall Street Journal

feat. Elina Ribakova

Michael Clemens (featured)

Trump’s Immigration Policies Are Making Us Poorer—and Sicker

via New Republic

feat. Michael A. Clemens

Maurice Obstfeld

Iran war reawakens global inflation fears

via Financial Times

feat. Maurice Obstfeld

Resources

Trump's tariff revenue tracker: How much is the US collecting? Which imports are hit?

PIIE Chart

Title
Trump's tariff revenue tracker: How much is the US collecting? Which imports are hit?

US-China Trade War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chart

PIIE Chart

Title
US-China Trade War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chart

Trump's trade war timeline 2.0: An up-to-date guide (featured)

RealTime Economics

Title
Trump's trade war timeline 2.0: An up-to-date guide

Pixel-Shot/Adobe Stock/stock.adobe.com

Microsite

Title
The future of the USMCA

What Is Globalization?

Microsite

Title
What Is Globalization?

Globalization has helped raise incomes almost everywhere since the 1980s

PIIE Chart

Title
Globalization has helped raise incomes almost everywhere since the 1980s